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Political turbulence and macroeconomic volatility make it a great environment for active fixed-income investors, says Mark Dowding, CIO of RBC BlueBay’s $130bn fixed-income unit.
Joining episode 32 of the AFI podcast, Dowding explains why relative value investing is well suited to the volatility and dissects the implications of Trump’s second term for markets and macroeconomics.
It is a fascinating insight into his trading approach, particularly how political research informs his trades, and outlook across different asset classes in 2025, more than three decades after he started his career in 1993. See topics and listen links below.
Topics (minute:second placement in episode):
1:45 – Introduction to Dowding’s role as CIO at $130bn fixed-income unit. Global macro background, started career in 1993.
3:48 – MD’s big-picture view, starting with strength of US economy. Fed rates on hold for time being. Views on inflation, dollar. FX creating more opportunity than rates.
7:46 – Trump volatility leading to opportunity. Maradona analogy.
10:12 – Do investors now understand Trump behaviour more now, which will help trading decisions.
11:50 – Thoughts on tariff agenda and possible inflationary impact. FX changes bearing brunt.
15:37 – How political meetings inform the approach. His certainty from US visits prior to election that Trump would win.
19:40 – Thoughts on Europe and UK.
26:54 – Relative value opportunities increasing amid the volatility. Thoughts on Japan.
29:00 – Thoughts on asset allocation trends.
33:50 – Thoughts on multi-strategy fees.
36:50 – Alpha on offer from active fixed-income. Passive approaches leaving alpha on the table.
This interview was recorded on 17 January.
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